The value function is crucial, sure. But back testing over a couple seasons I can usually land on something much better than what I as a (usually pretty casual) fan has in my head.
From an automation perspective the harder problem is getting match day squad selections (some sports regularly announce last minute teams, like at the time of the toss) and accounting for whatever special cases the game rules have tossed in (e.g. select a captain and vc, special reduced fees on trades this round, etc).
And to really win these games, rather say just beating your friends and landing top 5% globally, you also need risk management and portfolio optimisation strategies: e.g. when to play your "captain scores double this round" card? everyone has Mbappe, do you also pick him to hedge your riskier picks? I have no doubt that some players have built all this automation but I sure haven't.
If you want to maximize your chances of winning a very large game like this, you need to play quite a lot riskier than is intuitive, you definitely do not want to pick a popular player if your model predicts someone else will outperform him.
If you want to finish top 5%, having the best model should do it, with some attention to risk management in the last few games of the season (play riskier if you are in the 90th percentile than in the 99th).
If you want to maximise your chance of beating your friends, have the best model and think a little game theory at the end of the season based on whether you are leading or chasing.
I don't have the numbers to back this opinion, but I believe that consistently ranking in the top 5% in all the games will greatly increase your chances of winning the league. It's not necessary to win every stage, but just having high scores consistently will likely make you win the league.
I also don't have numbers, but I'd opine that you need that (top 5% every round) AND you need to be to have a few big rounds where you greatly outperform almost everyone. Getting those big rounds means taking some calculated risks.
From an automation perspective the harder problem is getting match day squad selections (some sports regularly announce last minute teams, like at the time of the toss) and accounting for whatever special cases the game rules have tossed in (e.g. select a captain and vc, special reduced fees on trades this round, etc).
And to really win these games, rather say just beating your friends and landing top 5% globally, you also need risk management and portfolio optimisation strategies: e.g. when to play your "captain scores double this round" card? everyone has Mbappe, do you also pick him to hedge your riskier picks? I have no doubt that some players have built all this automation but I sure haven't.