> Definitely not a bubble. ;)

When you square that with the total revenues of 6B in 1H.

They haven't put ads in ChatGPT yet as far as I know. It doesn't really make sense to work off the raw revenue before they put the main revenue-raiser in. Search isn't a very impressive money maker either if we take AdWords out.

I have a subscription. Dang, who does every profit model have to involve ads?

Because not everyone wants to pay for a subscription, certainly not the 5 billion Asians in any reasonable numbers.

There's a reason Google and Facebook run the tech world as we know it.

You and everyone else seem to assume on faith that OpenAI's ads revenue is going to dwarf their subscription revenue -- but you're being suckered. If you do the math, you'll find it's not nearly as clear-cut as you think.

Not impossible, but not a given.

>If you do the math

On the contrary the math makes it very clear. They need a free user ARPU of $11 to 12 per quarter to be profitable with billions to spare.

That's a low bar to clear for a platform with 700M+ Weekly Active Users who are more personal with it than any Google search.

Their total losses far exceed any revenue they are taking in.

Bitcoin:

AI: Hold my beer.

> $16Bn in compute spend (rent) rising to $400bn in 4 years. Definitely not a bubble. ;)

Just to put that in context, US GDP last year was about $30tn, and Apple's revenue was about $400bn. So Altman is saying he wants to spend around 1% of US GDP, or most of Apple's revenue, on compute alone in 2029. He's clearly using the "fire all your white collar employees" pitch deck at the very least, if not the "prepare to meet your Silicon God" one.

I also feel like there is a bubble.

However, looking at it impartially, it seems to mean sama is planning on making more money. Which seems to conclude in ads are incoming.

We give a lot of shit when LLMs get lost in context, digging themselves deeper and deeper into illogical trains of thoughts.

But is this sama doing the same thing. He CAN NOT stop and MUST NOT slow down. The slightest display of hesitation and doubt will make it all come crashing down.

And everyone else is doing the same. It’s an international game of chicken.