I would've thought this is a business problem - it's developing a product which cannibalizes their own market.
Uber's problem is that this is a big public announcement. And so what you have to be wondering is what all the Uber drivers are going to be thinking about their future today with Uber. There biggest problem in the next 5 years if they keep announcing self-driving car stuff could very well end up being that their competitors have an easy time poaching all their drivers.
It's not cannibalizing their market, it's exploding it. Currently, I will use uber infrequently because it's fairly cheap, half the price of a typical cab ride (and by contrast, I would say I use cabs rarely, when I have no other choice). If it becomes 1/10th the price of a typical cab ride, I would probably use it at every opportunity, all the time. More than 10x my current usage? Yes, probably.
The flaw in this thesis is that Uber charges 25% of the fare, plus fees, while the driver takes on the cost of the vehicle (depreciation, maintenance, finance), gas, parking, and pretty much everything else. If you get rid of the drivers, then Uber has to pay for all of that. That would be vastly more expensive, riskier, and if passengers really did expect prices to drop 5x, operating margins would evaporate. Making 25% off of somebody else's capital and labor is a pretty good trick, I don't see Uber or anyone else getting a better deal than that.
To be fair, Uber doesn't seem to promise any of its drivers a 'career'. It offers them a way to supplement their existing careers.
I don't see how this is any different from factories replacing low skill labor with robots. As libertarian as it sounds, I would point the finger at drivers who think of driving as a 'career'.
My most recent Lyft driver was a taxi driver (not sure if former or current). I don't know how common that is, but if he found it beneficial, I wouldn't be surprised if it's pretty common.
Uber have been very very gung-ho about how much their drivers make so I would claim that they do in fact promise a career. Not with uber-x but with the more expensive services they offer.
Uber's problem is that this is a big public announcement. And so what you have to be wondering is what all the Uber drivers are going to be thinking about their future today with Uber. There biggest problem in the next 5 years if they keep announcing self-driving car stuff could very well end up being that their competitors have an easy time poaching all their drivers.